Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Steer singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Hays to second.2–4
- 5Friedl scored, Marte safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Ritter, Hays to second, McLain to third.2–3
- 3Hays singled to center, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.2–2
- 3Moniak singled to left, Farmer scored and Nola scored.2–1
- 1Friedl homered to right (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 69%
- ML COL +205 / CIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 67.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +123 Elo | CIN 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–37 | Road vs home | 27–2217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301383 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 45–44 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–55 | 41–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–14 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 18.