Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torrens singled to left, Mauricio scored, Baty to second, McNeil to third.8–4
- 9Nimmo scored, Mauricio safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Joe.8–3
- 8Hays walked, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to second, McLain to third.8–2
- 7De La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored.7–2
- 6Stephenson homered to left center (401 feet), Steer scored.6–2
- 6Hays homered to center (401 feet).4–2
- 5McLain homered to left center (382 feet), Friedl scored.3–2
- 4Hays homered to right center (384 feet).1–2
- 2McNeil singled to right, Nimmo scored.0–2
- 1Soto homered to right center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML CIN +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 33–141st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–46 | 45–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–56 | 43–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–6 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.