Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torrens grounded into fielder's choice to second, Soto scored.2–3
- 8Steer hit by pitch, McLain scored, Hays to second, De La Cruz to third.2–2
- 5Acuña doubled to left, Baty scored.1–2
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Taylor scored.1–1
- 1De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored, McLain to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML CIN +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | 0 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +21 Elo | NYM 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 33–163rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 17th of 301507 | Elo rating | 152111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–46 | 45–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 27–43 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 42–57 | 44–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–6 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.