Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Josh BellBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz scored on Finnegan wild pitch, Lux to second on wild pitch by Finnegan.8–10
- 9De La Cruz scored on Finnegan wild pitch, Lux to second on wild pitch by Finnegan.8–10
- 9Lux singled to center, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.7–10
- 6Young singled to right, Rosario scored, Adams to third.6–10
- 6Rosario doubled to right, House scored.6–9
- 5Marte singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Steer to second.6–8
- 4House hit sacrifice fly to left, Wood scored.5–8
- 4Trevino grounded into double play, second to first, Marte scored, Fraley out at second.5–7
- 4Fraley singled to right, Steer scored, Marte to third.4–7
- 4Marte singled to left, Lux scored, Steer to second.3–7
- 4Steer reached on infield single to shortstop, Hays scored.2–7
- 4Lux singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Lux to second, Hays to third.1–7
- 3Young singled to right, Lile scored, Adams to third.0–7
- 3Adams doubled to center, House scored, Lile to third.0–6
- 3Bell homered to right (403 feet).0–5
- 1Lile tripled to right, Wood scored, Bell scored and Lowe scored.0–4
- 1Wood doubled to center, Abrams scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +44 Elo | CIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 19–3029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 17th of 301507 | Elo rating | 144727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–46 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders | 42–58 | 54–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–9 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.