Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shinnosuke OgasawaraPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin singled to right, Monasterio scored, Turang to third.5–6
- 9Vaughn doubled to center, Yelich scored and Chourio scored.5–5
- 9Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Adams scored.5–3
- 8House homered to left (401 feet), Lowe scored.4–3
- 4Vaughn doubled to left, Chourio scored and Contreras scored.2–3
- 4Chourio doubled to left, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.2–1
- 4House homered to left (427 feet).2–0
- 2Lile homered to right center (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 70%
- ML WSH +220 / MIL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -234
- WSH +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +16 | WSH: Shinnosuke Ogasawara: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +120 Elo | MIL 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 31–177th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 51–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 45–29 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–44 | 39–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–6 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.