San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Adams homered to center (389 feet).8–1
- 3Díaz homered to left (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.8–0
- 2Sheets singled to center, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.6–0
- 1Cronenworth doubled to left, Iglesias scored.5–0
- 1Bogaerts homered to left (390 feet), Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez scored and Machado scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SD: Elo 55.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +21 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +41 Elo | SD 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 19–2928th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 145027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–44 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 32–15 | 47–31 |
| Overs–unders | 41–57 | 53–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–5 WSH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.