Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored.4–5
- 6Merrill homered to right center (402 feet).4–4
- 5Sosa singled to left, Kepler scored and Marsh scored, Harper to second, Sosa to second, Harper safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Sheets.4–3
- 2Maldonado singled to right, Cronenworth scored.2–3
- 2Merrill homered to left center (364 feet), Sheets scored.2–2
- 2Realmuto doubled to center, Castellanos scored.2–0
- 2Castellanos reached on infield single to pitcher, Bohm scored on throwing error by pitcher Darvish, Castellanos to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / SD +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- SD +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 30–179th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–46 | 51–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–38 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54 | 39–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–5 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.