Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee grounded into fielder's choice to first, Chapman scored, Schmitt to second.1–3
- 8Schmitt grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Adames scored, Flores out at second, Chapman to third.1–2
- 5Stott scored on Roupp wild pitch.1–1
- 5Stott scored on Roupp wild pitch.1–1
- 2Matos grounded into fielder's choice to second, Chapman scored, Schmitt out at second, Flores to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / SF +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 25–1712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–44 | 39–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–36 | 16–40 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–51 | 43–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–8 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.