San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kurtz doubled to right, Butler scored, Rooker to third.7–2
- 6Wisely doubled to right, Bailey scored and Smith scored.7–1
- 5Ramos homered to center (416 feet).5–1
- 3Adames singled to left, Chapman scored and Lee scored, Adames to second.4–1
- 2Soderstrom grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Kurtz scored, Langeliers out at second.2–1
- 1Adames singled to center, Chapman scored and Devers scored, Lee to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML SF -185 / ATH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SF: Elo 60.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -166
- ATH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.3 – 4.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −27 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +72 Elo | SF 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 16–2729th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–52 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–40 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 51–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–5 ATH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
