San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Denzel ClarkeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith scored on throwing error by first baseman Kurtz, Lee safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Kurtz.2–11
- 8Wisely homered to center (415 feet).1–11
- 7Clarke homered to left center (471 feet), Gelof scored.0–11
- 6Kurtz homered to right (379 feet), Butler scored.0–9
- 6Butler singled to center, Clarke scored.0–7
- 3Gelof hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.0–6
- 2Rooker doubled to right, Wilson scored.0–5
- 2Wilson doubled to left, Butler scored and Muncy scored.0–4
- 2Muncy doubled to center, Soderstrom scored.0–2
- 1Rooker singled to left, Butler scored on error, Rooker safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Ramos.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML SF -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- ATH: Elo 43.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +45 Elo | SF 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 15–2729th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–51 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–40 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 50–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–4 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
