Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max SchuemannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soderstrom reached on infield single to first, Urshela scored, Butler to second, Schuemann to third.5–6
- 9Urshela singled to center, Wynns scored.4–6
- 9Muncy homered to left center (400 feet).3–6
- 6Thaiss singled to center, Simpson scored.2–6
- 6Simpson singled to right, Caminero scored.2–5
- 6Díaz homered to left center (415 feet), B. Lowe scored.2–4
- 6J. Lowe homered to center (413 feet).2–2
- 2Mangum hit an inside-the-park home run to center (404 feet).2–1
- 2Schuemann homered to left center (386 feet).2–0
- 1Rooker homered to left (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML ATH +170 / TB -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 60.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- ATH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −14 | ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +72 Elo | TB 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 27–2519th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–45 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 36–32 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 49–39 | 36–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–9 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
