Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler tripled to left, Muncy scored and Schuemann scored.6–4
- 4Caballero reached on bunt single to pitcher, Mangum scored, Aranda to second.4–4
- 4Aranda singled to right, Morel scored, Mangum to second.4–3
- 4Caminero homered to center (425 feet), Mead scored.4–2
- 3Rooker singled to center, Butler scored, Wilson to third.4–0
- 1Langeliers homered to left center (408 feet), Rooker scored and Kurtz scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML ATH +155 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TB: Elo 65.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -166
- ATH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +14 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +111 Elo | TB 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 27–2318th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 28th of 301437 | Elo rating | 15308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–45 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 34–32 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38 | 35–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–9 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
