San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler grounded out to first, Soderstrom scored, Clarke to second, Gelof to third.6–2
- 8Fitzgerald homered to left center (372 feet).6–1
- 5Matos hit a ground rule double, Devers scored and Flores scored, Adames to third.5–1
- 5Adames walked, Knizner scored, Flores to second, Devers to third.3–1
- 4Soderstrom homered to right (389 feet).2–1
- 4Adames homered to center (432 feet).2–0
- 1Adames walked, Ramos scored, Flores to second, Devers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML SF -105 / ATH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +13 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 16–2829th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 144228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–52 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–40 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders | 43–47 | 51–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–5 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
