Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to left (371 feet).6–3
- 8Perdomo singled to right, Carroll scored.6–2
- 8Carroll tripled to center, McCann scored.5–2
- 7Tatis Jr. grounded out to second, Cronenworth scored, Iglesias to third.4–2
- 5Naylor homered to center (413 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–1
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Carroll scored.2–1
- 2Suárez doubled to left, Naylor scored.1–1
- 1Arraez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Perdomo, Machado out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SD: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +43 Elo | SD 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 27–158th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 13th of 301511 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–45 | 49–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–32 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 49–41 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–14 SD in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 29.