Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cronenworth singled to right, Merrill scored, Sheets to second, Machado to third.2–3
- 6Arraez singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second.2–2
- 4Machado homered to center (440 feet).2–1
- 3Semien doubled to center, Seager scored and Smith scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML TEX -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- SD: Elo 56.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +45 Elo | SD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 48–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–27 | 20–23 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–56 | 36–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 1–5 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.