Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-3
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Realmuto scored, Marsh out at second.13–0
- 9Marsh grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rojas scored, Stott out at second, Realmuto to third.12–0
- 8Schwarber homered to left center (371 feet), Realmuto scored and Turner scored.11–0
- 8Turner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rojas scored, Marsh out at second, Realmuto to third.8–0
- 8Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second, Rojas to third.7–0
- 8Realmuto singled to left, Bohm scored, Kepler to second, Castellanos to third.6–0
- 8Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.5–0
- 6Kepler hit sacrifice fly to left, Castellanos scored.4–0
- 6Castellanos singled to left, Harper scored.3–0
- 4Harper homered to left center (380 feet).2–0
- 2Realmuto singled to left, Bohm scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / SF +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −14 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 27–1710th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 7th of 301536 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–45 | 40–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–37 | 16–41 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 24–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–53 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–10 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.