Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bailey homered inside-the-park to right center (414 feet), Schmitt scored and Wisely scored.3–4
- 7Schwarber homered to right (402 feet), Marsh scored.3–1
- 6Kemp doubled to left, Bohm scored, Castellanos to third.1–1
- 2Smith singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Lee to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML PHI +135 / SF -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- SF: Elo 54.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- PHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +13 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 26–1712th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 7th of 301537 | Elo rating | 150816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–45 | 40–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–37 | 16–40 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 24–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52 | 43–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–9 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.