Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to right (368 feet).2–4
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (425 feet).2–3
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Iglesias scored.1–3
- 2Díaz grounded out to shortstop, Merrill scored, Iglesias to third.1–2
- 2Iglesias doubled to right, Bogaerts scored, Merrill to third.1–1
- 2Castellanos homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -160 / SD +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- SD +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 29–1710th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–45 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–37 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 40–53 | 39–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–4 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.