Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo doubled to right, Carroll scored.3–4
- 5Bogaerts doubled to left, Sheets scored.2–4
- 5Machado homered to left (391 feet).2–3
- 4Cronenworth grounded out to first, Merrill scored, Iglesias to second.2–2
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to center (420 feet).2–1
- 3Carroll hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.2–0
- 3Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored, Thomas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML ARI -130 / SD +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 45.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +29 Elo | SD 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 28–1710th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–45 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–32 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–42 | 39–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 17–15 SD in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 32.