Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3
- Nick PivettaPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto doubled to center, Harper scored.2–1
- 6Iglesias singled to center, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.1–1
- 1Harper scored, Stott safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Arraez, Realmuto to second, Castellanos to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / SD +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +9 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 31–177th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–47 | 52–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–39 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–54 | 40–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–6 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.