San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to left (389 feet), Iglesias scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Arraez scored.7–2
- 9Díaz hit sacrifice bunt to first, Cronenworth scored, Iglesias to second.3–2
- 8Abrams homered to right center (428 feet), Young scored.2–2
- 7Díaz hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second.2–0
- 2Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SD: Elo 59.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −23 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +68 Elo | SD 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 18–2829th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 145027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–43 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 32–15 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders | 40–56 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–4 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.