Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.2–5
- 7Pages homered to left center (412 feet).1–5
- 6Smith homered to left center (435 feet).1–4
- 4Smith homered to center (395 feet).1–3
- 1Ohtani homered to center (441 feet), Betts scored.1–2
- 1Buxton homered to left center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML MIN +145 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–31 | Road vs home | 33–209th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 42–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 32–52 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 44–55 | 56–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.