Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas homered to left (381 feet).8–7
- 8Edman homered to left (369 feet).8–6
- 8Ortiz homered to left (414 feet).8–5
- 7Vaughn singled to center, Turang scored, Chourio to second.7–5
- 6Ohtani singled to left, Edman scored, Rojas to second.6–5
- 6Durbin doubled to left, Collins scored.6–4
- 4Collins homered to right (363 feet).5–4
- 3Freeman scored on Peralta wild pitch, T. Hernández to third on wild pitch by Peralta.4–4
- 3Freeman scored on Peralta wild pitch, T. Hernández to third on wild pitch by Peralta.4–4
- 3T. Hernández doubled to center, Smith scored, Freeman to third.4–3
- 3Ohtani homered to center (448 feet), Rojas scored.4–2
- 3Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.4–0
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Turang scored and Ortiz scored.3–0
- 3Ortiz singled to left, Perkins scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML MIL +105 / LAD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 33–185th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–44 | 42–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 41–56 | 54–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–9 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.