Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Bailey scored, Yastrzemski to third.2–1
- 6Kim singled to left, Conforto scored, Kim out stretching at second, Pages to third.2–0
- 2Edman grounded out to second, Conforto scored, Pages to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -165 / SF +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +15 Elo | LAD 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 28–1811th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 1st of 301549 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–54 | 40–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 16–42 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 54–41 | 45–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 18–12 SF in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.