Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-2
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Durbin homered to center (410 feet).2–0
- 5Durbin doubled to left, Collins scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML MIL +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- MIL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 33–174th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301549 | Elo rating | 15521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–44 | 42–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 32–49 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 41–55 | 54–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–9 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.