Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pages singled to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.5–2
- 11T. Hernández reached on infield single to first, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.4–2
- 11Freeman singled to center, Outman scored, Ohtani to third.3–2
- 9Matos homered to left center (424 feet), Chapman scored.2–2
- 5Rojas homered to left (383 feet).2–0
- 4Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / SF +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +12 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +25 Elo | LAD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 28–1912th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 1st of 301550 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–55 | 41–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–49 | 16–42 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 54–42 | 45–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 19–12 SF in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.