Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith scored, Rushing safe at first on error by first baseman Vaughn, Outman to second, Pages to third.6–5
- 6Collins singled to center, Chourio scored and Haase scored, Vaughn thrown out at third.6–4
- 6Haase singled to left, Ortiz scored.4–4
- 5Ruiz homered to center (413 feet).3–4
- 4Monasterio scored on error, Ortiz safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Pages, Ortiz safe at second on error.3–3
- 4Monasterio singled to left, Perkins scored, Monasterio to second.2–3
- 4Perkins reached on infield single to third, Vaughn scored on throwing error by third baseman Edman, Perkins to second.1–3
- 3Ohtani homered to left (378 feet), Betts scored.0–3
- 3Rushing hit sacrifice fly to right, Pages scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML MIL +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- MIL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +11 Elo | LAD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 33–196th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 1st of 301552 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–44 | 42–57 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 32–51 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 42–56 | 55–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–9 LAD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.