Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yohan RamirezPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Travis AdamsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8N. Gonzales singled to center, Horwitz scored.4–12
- 7Castro homered to center (398 feet).3–12
- 7Buxton homered to center (427 feet).3–11
- 7Bart singled to left, Cruz scored.3–10
- 6Wallner homered to right center (434 feet).2–10
- 5Suwinski homered to right center (408 feet).2–9
- 4N. Gonzales grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCutchen scored, Reynolds safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Lewis, Reynolds safe at third on error.1–9
- 3Larnach hit sacrifice fly to right, Buxton scored.0–9
- 3Castro singled to center, Clemens scored, Buxton to third.0–8
- 3Buxton hit a ground rule double, France scored, Clemens to third.0–7
- 2Lee doubled to left, Larnach scored, Jeffers to third.0–6
- 2Jeffers singled to right, Castro scored, Larnach to second.0–5
- 2Castro reached on infield single to pitcher, Buxton scored on error, Castro safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Burrows.0–4
- 2Clemens homered to right (389 feet), Lewis scored and France scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML PIT +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Cole Sands: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–36 | Road vs home | 27–1914th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–47 | 48–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 26–29 |
| Underdog | 40–28 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–57 | 42–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.