Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Larnach homered to right center (399 feet), Buxton scored.1–2
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to center, Horwitz scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML PIT +120 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +3 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–35 | Road vs home | 26–1914th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 48–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 26–28 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–56 | 42–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.