Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lewis scored, Wallner caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.2–4
- 4Lewis scored, Wallner caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.2–4
- 4Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored, Swanson out at second, Busch to third.2–3
- 4Swanson reached on infield single to shortstop, Tucker scored, Busch to second, Suzuki to third.1–3
- 2Wallner homered to right (390 feet).0–3
- 1Correa doubled to right, Jeffers scored.0–2
- 1Jeffers singled to left, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML CHC -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 44.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +36 Elo | CHC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–21 | Road vs home | 25–1814th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 25–27 |
| Underdog | 13–17 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 51–40 | 42–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.