Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bader homered to left (378 feet).3–4
- 7Lee hit by pitch, France scored, Castro to second, Buxton to third.3–3
- 7Buxton doubled to left, Wallner scored, France to third.3–2
- 7J. Lowe singled to right, Simpson scored.3–1
- 6Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored.2–1
- 6Díaz doubled to center, J. Lowe scored.1–1
- 5Bader homered to left (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML TB +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.2 – 5.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 22–1714th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–42 | 46–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–50 | 40–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–5 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.