Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Danny JansenBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Travis AdamsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee reached on bunt single to first, Buxton scored, Castro to second.5–6
- 6Clemens homered to left (377 feet), Jeffers scored and Lewis scored.5–5
- 6Lewis singled to center, Correa scored, Jeffers to second.5–2
- 6Simpson sacrificed into double play, left to shortstop to first to second, Mangum scored, Walls thrown out at second.5–1
- 5Caminero hit sacrifice fly to center, Jansen scored.4–1
- 5Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Simpson scored.3–1
- 4J. Lowe doubled to left, Aranda scored.2–1
- 3Jansen doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–1
- 2Lewis reached on infield single to pitcher, Correa scored, Wallner to second, Jeffers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML TB +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +4 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Cole Sands (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB 0 Elo | TB 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 23–1714th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–42 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–25 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–51 | 40–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–6 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.