Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Justin TurnerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner homered to left (371 feet).1–8
- 8Bader homered to left center (446 feet), Lewis scored.0–8
- 8Lewis singled to left, Correa scored.0–6
- 8Castro homered to right center (360 feet).0–5
- 8Jeffers homered to left (420 feet), Buxton scored.0–4
- 1Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Jeffers scored, Correa to second.0–2
- 1Jeffers doubled to left, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / MIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–20 | Road vs home | 24–1815th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 46–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 31–29 | 25–27 |
| Underdog | 13–17 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 51–39 | 42–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.