Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bader grounded out to second, Buxton scored.7–5
- 10Caminero hit sacrifice fly to left, Caballero scored.7–4
- 10Caballero hit sacrifice bunt, Díaz scored, Caballero to first on throwing error by pitcher Topa, Caballero to third.6–4
- 10Díaz doubled to center, Jansen scored.5–4
- 8Bader homered to left (402 feet), Castro scored.4–4
- 8Aranda reached on infield single to shortstop, Díaz scored on error, Caminero to second.4–2
- 8Caminero grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Morel scored, Díaz third.3–2
- 6Larnach scored, Lee safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Caballero.2–2
- 4Aranda singled to right, Caballero scored.2–1
- 3Walls homered to right (368 feet).1–1
- 1Buxton homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML TB +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–42 | 46–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–51 | 41–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–7 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.