Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch grounded out to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.8–1
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (425 feet).7–1
- 5Clemens homered to right center (406 feet).6–1
- 5Swanson singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second.6–0
- 5Busch singled to center, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.5–0
- 4Shaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelly scored.4–0
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to center (414 feet), Tucker scored.3–0
- 2Hoerner singled to center, Swanson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 26–1813th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 48–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 26–27 |
| Underdog | 13–18 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 51–41 | 42–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.