Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro homered to center (439 feet), Buxton scored and Jeffers scored.4–6
- 6Freeman hit a ground rule double, Fernández scored, Nola to third.1–6
- 5Buxton homered to left center (416 feet).1–5
- 2Beck homered to center (448 feet).0–5
- 1McMahon homered to right center (436 feet), Beck scored.0–4
- 1Beck tripled to right, Moniak scored.0–2
- 1Moniak doubled to center, Freeman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -180 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −10 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +101 Elo | MIN 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 10–3630th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 138230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–47 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–30 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 45–45 |
| Overs–unders | 43–53 | 40–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.