Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Horwitz grounded out to second, Hayes scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Cruz to third.2–1
- 3Buxton doubled to left, Bader scored.1–1
- 2Pham homered to center (421 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML PIT +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–37 | Road vs home | 28–1912th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–48 | 49–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 27–29 |
| Underdog | 40–29 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–57 | 43–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.