Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castro tripled to left, Castro scored on throwing error by shortstop Arcia.7–1
- 8Lewis homered to left center (411 feet).6–1
- 6Bader homered to right (375 feet).5–1
- 4Lewis homered to center (451 feet).4–1
- 3Moniak homered to right (448 feet).3–1
- 3Wallner homered to right (386 feet), France scored.3–0
- 3Clemens tripled to right, Castro scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 68%
- ML MIN -250 / COL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.7%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -214
- COL +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 6.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–31 | Road vs home | 12–3630th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 138830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–49 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 47–45 |
| Overs–unders | 44–54 | 41–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–4 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.