Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bader doubled to center, Lee scored.6–10
- 8Goodman homered to right (394 feet), Moniak scored.5–10
- 8Clemens doubled to center, Bader scored and Castro scored, Larnach to third.5–8
- 6Goodman grounded out to second, Freeman scored, Moniak to second.3–8
- 6Freeman doubled to left, Doyle scored.3–7
- 5Tovar homered to center (433 feet), Moniak scored and Goodman scored.3–6
- 3McMahon homered to center (429 feet), Beck scored.3–3
- 2Ritter doubled to left, Tovar scored.3–1
- 2Wallner singled to right, Correa scored.3–0
- 2Correa doubled to right, Clemens scored.2–0
- 2Clemens tripled to center, Jeffers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 6.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +82 Elo | MIN 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–30 | Road vs home | 11–3630th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 138530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–48 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–31 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 46–45 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54 | 40–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–3 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.