Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman singled to left, Betts scored and Ohtani scored, Ruiz to second.3–4
- 8Bader reached on infield single to second, Lee scored.3–2
- 8Castro grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Keirsey Jr. scored, Buxton out at second, Lee to third.2–2
- 7Edman singled to right, Freeman scored, Rojas to second, Pages to third.1–2
- 3Lewis homered to left (386 feet).1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (441 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML MIN +180 / LAD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- MIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +88 Elo | LAD 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–32 | Road vs home | 34–219th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–50 | 43–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 33–53 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 45–56 | 57–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.