Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to left center (405 feet), Outman scored.10–7
- 9France doubled to right, Correa scored.10–5
- 7Correa scored, France scored on throwing error by pitcher Henriquez and Wallner scored on error, Lewis safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Henriquez, Lewis safe at third on error.9–5
- 6Kim singled to center, Smith scored and Conforto scored.6–5
- 6Vázquez singled to left, Wallner scored, Lewis to third.6–3
- 6Bader grounded out to third, France scored, Lewis to second, Wallner to third.5–3
- 6Lewis walked, Correa scored, Wallner to second, France to third.4–3
- 4Pages homered to left center (387 feet), Smith scored and Freeman scored.3–3
- 2Vázquez doubled to center, Lewis scored and France scored.3–0
- 2Lewis reached on infield single to third, Correa scored, France to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML MIN +170 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +77 Elo | LAD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–32 | Road vs home | 34–209th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 43–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 33–52 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 44–56 | 56–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–5 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.