Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting6-6, 4 HR, 8 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Zack ShortBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz doubled to left, Trammell scored.15–3
- 9Kurtz homered to left (383 feet), Urshela scored and Cortes scored.15–2
- 9Schuemann grounded out to third, Butler scored.12–2
- 8Kurtz homered to right (414 feet).11–2
- 6Kurtz homered to left (368 feet).10–2
- 5Short homered to left (340 feet), McCormick scored.9–2
- 4Langeliers homered to left center (389 feet), Kurtz scored.9–0
- 4Kurtz doubled to center, Cortes scored.7–0
- 3Soderstrom homered to right (376 feet).6–0
- 2Kurtz homered to left (384 feet), Schuemann scored.5–0
- 1Wilson singled to center, Soderstrom scored.3–0
- 1Soderstrom doubled to left, Langeliers scored and Kurtz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML ATH +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +93 Elo | HOU 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 33–208th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–52 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 26–43 |
| Underdog | 44–38 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 59–46 | 45–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 11–22 HOU in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 33.