Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langeliers singled to left, Wilson scored, Rooker to third.2–6
- 7Seager homered to right center (399 feet), Higashioka scored and Smith scored.1–6
- 7Smith singled to left, Jung scored, Higashioka to second.1–3
- 6Semien homered to left (364 feet).1–2
- 4A. García homered to center (426 feet).1–1
- 1Butler homered to right (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 66%
- ML ATH +185 / TEX -225
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -197
- ATH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +91 Elo | TEX 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 29–2012th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–51 | 53–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 42–37 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–44 | 39–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 15–19 TEX in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.