Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz homered to left center (385 feet).8–2
- 9Wilson homered to left center (375 feet), Clarke scored.7–2
- 8Langeliers homered to right (347 feet), Kurtz scored.5–2
- 4Andujar singled to center, Langeliers scored.3–2
- 4Langeliers doubled to right, Kurtz scored.2–2
- 4Kurtz doubled to right, Rooker scored.1–2
- 3Ramírez homered to right (384 feet), Jones scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML ATH +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −3 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +93 Elo | CLE 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 21–2324th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 41–35 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 55–44 | 43–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–14 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.
