Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Tauchman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Montgomery scored, M. Taylor to second.4–5
- 8Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Teel scored.4–4
- 7Martínez doubled to right, Jones scored, Manzardo to third.4–3
- 6Rocchio doubled to left, Schneemann scored, Wilson to third.3–3
- 5Sosa homered to left center (440 feet).2–3
- 3Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored.2–2
- 3Ramírez homered to right (384 feet), Kwan scored.2–1
- 1Sosa homered to left center (426 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +57 Elo | CLE 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 10th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 20–2726th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 52–42 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 52–37 |
| Overs–unders | 40–52 | 42–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–13 CHW in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.