Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-3
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Sosa singled to left, Quero scored, Robert Jr. to second.1–2
- 4Quero doubled to left, Slater scored.1–1
- 2Heineman reached on bunt single to pitcher, Wagner scored, Straw to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +80 Elo | TOR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 19–2627th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–37 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 51–37 |
| Overs–unders | 52–40 | 42–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 14–3 CHW in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.