Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa singled to center, Vargas scored, Teel to third.8–4
- 7Tauchman singled to right, Montgomery scored and Rojas scored.8–3
- 6Lukes hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Clement scored, Loperfido to second.8–1
- 6Loperfido singled to right, Kirk scored and Straw scored, Clement to third.7–1
- 6Barger homered to right (414 feet), Bichette scored.5–1
- 5Lukes homered to right (397 feet).3–1
- 5Loperfido homered to right center (393 feet).2–1
- 4Bichette singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 2Baldwin reached on infield single to first, Teel scored, Montgomery to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TOR -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +76 Elo | TOR 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 19–2426th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 141429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–37 | 51–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 51–36 |
| Overs–unders | 50–40 | 40–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–3 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.