Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Clement hit sacrifice bunt, Straw scored, Clement to first on throwing error by pitcher Bachman, Lukes to second.3–4
- 7Adell homered to center (431 feet), Trout scored and Ward scored.3–3
- 6Barger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Springer scored, Bichette safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Neto.0–3
- 6Bichette singled to left, Jiménez scored, Springer to third.0–2
- 6Giménez singled to left, Wagner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML LAA +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 29–167th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–42 | 53–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–40 | 50–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–12 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.