Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Barger singled to right, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Lukes to third.3–4
- 7Schanuel singled to right, Rengifo scored.3–3
- 3Springer homered to center (413 feet), Lukes scored.2–3
- 3Adell hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored, Trout to third.2–1
- 1Barger singled to right, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–1
- 1Adell walked, Neto scored, Ward to second, Trout to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 65%
- ML LAA +175 / TOR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- LAA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 5.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 30–166th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–42 | 53–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–13 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.