Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Josh RojasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rojas homered to right (373 feet).6–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. out stretching at second, Springer to third.6–0
- 3Loperfido grounded into fielder's choice to second, Barger scored, Kirk out at second.5–0
- 3Kirk singled to center, Bichette scored, Barger to third.4–0
- 3Barger doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.3–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored.2–0
- 3Schneider homered to left (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 0.6 – -0.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 0
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 19–2526th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 141329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–37 | 51–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 51–37 |
| Overs–unders | 51–40 | 41–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–3 CHW in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.